No-Vig Probability Calculator

Strip the sportsbook's margin out of a two-sided market. See vig-free implied probability for each side and the book's hold percentage.

Side A no-vig

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raw: ·

Side B no-vig

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raw: ·

Book hold (vig)

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The percentage by which the book's two sides sum above 100%.

What no-vig probability is

The raw implied probabilities of a two-sided market sum to more than 100%. The amount over 100% is the book's margin. No-vig probability removes that margin, giving you the closest publicly available estimate of the book's view of true probability.

The math

Compute each side's raw implied probability from American or decimal odds. Sum them. Divide each side's raw probability by the sum. The result is each side's vig-free probability. The two vig-free probabilities sum to exactly 100%.

Example: -110 / -110 implies 52.38% / 52.38%, summing to 104.76%. Divide each by 1.0476 and you get 50.00% / 50.00%. Hold = 4.76%.

Why this matters

Different books have different holds on the same market. Comparing books at their no-vig probabilities (rather than raw odds) lets you see which book is pricing each side as the favorite, on a level field. It also helps when you're estimating value: compare your own probability estimate to the no-vig probability, not the raw implied.

For more on hold and how it compares across books, try our Sportsbook Hold Calculator or read about why odds differ between sportsbooks.

Frequently Asked Questions

What is no-vig probability?

No-vig (or fair) probability is the implied probability with the book's margin removed. It is the closest available estimate of what the book itself thinks the true probability of an outcome is.

How is it calculated?

For a two-way market, take each side's raw implied probability and divide by the sum of both. The result is each side's vig-free probability. The sum of vig-free probabilities equals 100%.

Why is no-vig probability useful?

It lets you compare bets across books with different hold percentages on a level playing field, and it helps you see which side a book is pricing as the favorite without the noise of the vig.

Does the no-vig price equal the true probability?

Close, but not exactly. The book's no-vig price is the book's estimate of true probability after the book's information edge. Sharp bettors compare books' no-vig prices to their own estimate to find value.