Futures and Outright Odds Explained

Futures are season-long bets. Instead of wagering on a single game, you're wagering on a championship, an award, or a tournament that resolves weeks or months from when you place the bet. The market structure is different from single-game betting, the math is different, and the reasons people bet them are different.

How futures markets work

A futures market is a list of every plausible outcome with a price next to each one. The 2026 NBA Champion futures market lists every team in the league with a price. The 2026 PGA Championship outright winner market lists every entrant. The Stanley Cup winner market lists every NHL team.

You bet on a single outcome. Your stake locks in at the current price. If the outcome resolves in your favor at any point through the duration of the market, the bet pays at your locked-in price. If anything else happens, the bet loses.

Major futures markets at U.S. books:

• NBA: regular season MVP, NBA Champion, conference winner, division winner
• NFL: Super Bowl winner, conference winner, division winner, MVP, Offensive/Defensive Player of the Year
• NHL: Stanley Cup, conference winner, division winner, Hart Trophy (MVP)
• MLB: World Series, league pennants, division winners, MVP, Cy Young, Rookie of the Year
• Golf: tournament outrights (PGA Championship, Masters, U.S. Open, The Open, Tour Championship)
• Tennis: Grand Slam winners (Australian Open, French Open, Wimbledon, U.S. Open)
• Soccer: Champions League winner, World Cup winner, league title

For the live MatchupOdds outright market, see our current PGA Championship outright page or any active tournament.

How prices work

Futures odds are American odds, just like single-game prices. Differences:

• Long shots can be very long. +10000 (100/1) means a $1 bet wins $100 if the entrant wins.
• Favorites can be relatively low. The clear favorite for a Stanley Cup might be +500 (5/1) at the start of playoffs.
• The gap between best and worst price across books is wider than on single-game markets. Lines often haven't moved in days, and book models genuinely disagree on small probabilities.

Outright tournament markets

For tournaments (PGA, ATP, Champions League knockout), the futures market is called an outright winner market. Every entrant gets a price; one wins. Math is the same as a season-long futures market, but the duration is shorter (a few days for golf, a few weeks for soccer knockouts).

Outright markets often have very high hold. A 156-player PGA tournament can have a sum of implied probabilities reaching 130%+. The book's hold on outrights is the hardest hold to beat in sports betting.

Strategies for outright markets:

• Bet a placement market (top 5, top 10, top 20). Lower variance, lower hold, more strategic.
• Bet head-to-head matchups. Books offer player-vs-player tournament matchups (Player A finishes higher than Player B). These are essentially -110 / -110 markets and have far lower hold.
• Bet outright only when you have a strong probability estimate that meaningfully diverges from the implied probability. Otherwise, the book's hold eats most expected value.

When to bet futures

Early-season futures: highest expected value if you have a real edge on team or player projections. The market is relatively soft because public action is heavy on a small number of favorites.

Mid-season futures: useful for hedging. If you bet a 25-1 longshot in October and they reach the conference finals in May, mid-season prices let you hedge or take more action.

Pre-tournament outrights: useful for golf and tennis where you have an opinion on a specific entrant's form. Lower-variance alternatives (top 10 finishes, head-to-head matchups) often have better expected value.

Hedging futures

The classic futures hedge: you bet a longshot at the start of the season. They reach the championship game. Their championship-game opponent is now a moderate favorite. If you hedge by betting the opposite team in the championship at a price that locks in equal profit, you guarantee a profit (or a smaller-than-expected profit) regardless of who wins.

Use our hedge bet calculator to compute the exact hedge stake needed to lock in equal profit on either outcome.

Common futures pitfalls

• Betting longshots based on narrative. The implied probability of +5000 is 2%. Most of the time, the team won't win. The math has to actually work for the bet to be profitable.
• Ignoring hold. A futures market with 25% hold needs you to be ~25% better at probability estimation than the book's average to break even.
• Tying up money for long periods. A futures bet placed in October won't resolve until May or June. That's 7+ months of opportunity cost.
• Cashing out too early at unfavorable prices. Cashout offers from the book usually include extra margin. Hedging at a competitor often gives a better effective price.

Line shopping futures

The price gap on futures across books is often the widest gap in all of sports betting. A team listed at +1200 at one book might be +1600 at another. The same Stanley Cup winner future at three books can vary by 30 to 50% on a longshot.

Always compare. MatchupOdds shows outright pricing for each tournament's active market on the relevant tournament page. The math is the same as any other market: take the best available price.

For more on the underlying math, see our implied probability calculator and American odds primer.

Frequently Asked Questions

What are futures bets?

Futures are wagers on the outcome of a championship, season-long award, or tournament that resolves at a future date. Examples: NBA Champion, Super Bowl winner, PGA Championship outright winner, Stanley Cup winner.

Why do futures pay so well?

Futures cover many possible outcomes (an entire field of teams or entrants), so each individual outcome has a low implied probability. The longest shots can be +5000 or more.

What is a futures hold?

Add up every entrant's implied probability. The sum will exceed 100%, often by a lot (15 to 25%). That excess is the book's hold on the futures market. Hold on outright winners is much higher than on a single-game spread.

Can I cash out a futures bet early?

Most major U.S. books offer cash-out on futures. The offer reflects the book's current price on the outcome and includes a margin. Hedging at another book is often a better deal than cashing out.